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DEVELOPMENTAL STATE AND ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN NIGERIA: The Path of Non-oil Exports

DEVELOPMENTAL STATE AND ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN NIGERIA: The Path of Non-oil Exports

 

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of non-oil exports in Nigeria and how they are affected by changes in trade barriers. The study is hinged on Douglas C. North’s Export Base Theory. The study employs an econometric method of analysis, via a system of equations that enable simulations of dynamic scenarios from agricultural policy to key determinants of non-oil exports and economic growth. The results reveal a positive but non-significant relationship from non-oil exports to gross domestic product but a positive and significant relationship from gross domestic product to non-oil exports. This implies that in Nigeria non-oil exports are driven by increases in the gross domestic product. The simulations indicate that gross domestic product, investment and exchange rate respond positively to increases in agricultural output, whereas, non-oil exports do not. For this tide to turn, deliberate and concerted policy towards diversification of the Nigerian economy must be articulated, with proper focus on increases in agricultural and industrial output as both variables assume positive and significant relationship in the non-oil exports model.

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